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All of those multiples are affected by the fact that oil prices have dropped dramatically since the latest financial statements and that the earnings numbers, specifically, will dive in the coming quarters. 50)., however I'll strive anyway. 6,638 million, previous to taxes. 135.1 billion owed by the corporate, making its equity price nothing. The purple numbers signify the dead zone, where the value of the enterprise is lower than the debt outstanding they usually dominate the desk. Regardless of the reckless abandon proven by its administration, there stay some shiny spots, if you are an optimist. The first is that the corporate is certainly one of the largest oil producers on the earth and if oil prices rebound, they may see a soar in revenues. 135.8 billion, improve its operating margin to the 21.1% that it earned in 2010 and its return on capital to 13.36% (10-yr average), while reducing its debt ratio to 43.5% (average over final 5 years).
9.12/share). You might be welcome to check out totally different combinations of your assumptions on this spreadsheet and see what you get. A few weeks ago, Ms. Maria das Gracas Foster, Petrobras CEO since February 2012, stepped down, and the Brazilian authorities introduced that it has chosen Mr. Aldemir Bendine, former head of Banco do Brazil, as the subsequent CEO. The market response was virtually universally destructive, partly because Mr. Bendine doesn't have any experience in the oil business and partly as a result of there isn't any belief left in the Brazilian government. I do not know Mr. Bendine and it can be unfair of me to tar him as a government stooge, simply because he was appointed by the federal government. In reality, I am prepared to not solely cut him some slack however to also provide recommendation on what he should do in the approaching weeks. 1. Hire a chief operating officer who is aware of the oil business and turn over operating tasks to him. 2. Fire anybody in the highest management who has any political connections.
That will leave plenty of empty places of work in Petrobras headquarters, but less injury might be performed by nobody being in those workplaces than the present occupants. 3. Side with administrators for the minority stockholders and push for a more unbiased, accountable board. 25 billion between 2011 and 2013. With oil prices low, the patron backlash will be bearable. 5. Push brazenly for a transfer to one class of shares with equal voting rights. Accompany this motion by slicing dividends to zero. 6. Clean up the investment course of with less auto-pilot exploration, production that is in line with oil prices and fewer concentrate on growth, for the sake of growth. 7. Start paying down your debt. What is the worst that may occur to you? If the government is ready on a path of self-destruction, you can be fired. If that happens, wear it as a badge of honor, since your reputation will probably be enhanced and you'll emerge trying like a hero.
If you go together with the status quo, you will preside over the final destruction of what was Brazil’s crown jewel and face the same fate as your predecessor. There are always lessons to be discovered from each calamity and Petrobras qualifies as a calamity. The first is to acknowledge that there each motive to be skeptical when politicians declare "nationwide interest" and meddle incessantly in public firms. Normally, what you have got are political interests which can or might not coincide with national interests, where elected politicians and authorities officials use stockholder money to advance their standing. Corruption update: I've been asked by lots of you as to why have sidestepped the corruption tales that have been swirling round the company. I did so, not as a result of I wish to avoid controversy (which I don't mind at all) however as a result of I thought that no less than in this case, being refined delivers the message about political recreation taking part in better than brute force. At Petrobras, I deal with corruption as a extremely bad funding with horrible returns to stockholders, however I imagine that with its administration structure, the corporate was destined for bother, and that the corruption simply greased the skids.
