So gasoline is still more expensive than electricity for transportation, but is electricity produced from coal and natural gas cheaper than that from renewables? Price of fossil fuels (oil (2) and natural gas(3)) in the U.S. 14 year lows. The amount of electricity generated using coal in the U.S. 1970 (4) and last year, natural gas surpassed coal as the top U.S. Even with cheap fuels, energy efficiency is even less expensive, and over the period of 2007 to 2015 U.S. 2.4% while GDP increased 10%. (5) This appears to be good for the consumer, bad for the oil and natural gas industry and really bad for the coal industry. Fig. 1. Efficiency of gasoline and electric vehicles. 63/MWh) with the Income Tax Credit, and renewable generation remains cost-competitive without subsidies. 25% from one year ago. This was the second straight year that renewable additions to the grid exceeded that of fossil fuel additions. Fossil fuels have lost the race against renewables for electricity generation or as shown in Fig. 2, clean energy is starting to eat fossil fuels for lunch.
But let us get back to cheap gasoline (U.S. Oil prices are likely to fall further as oil producing countries are not slowing production, as they are desperate for cash and do not want to lose their global market share. This has contributed to an oil glut (2 million barrels a day of excess production), which first started in 2014. Oil is primarily used as a transportation fuel, while renewables are largely electricity sources that provide power. So oil does not directly compete with renewables, but could cheap gasoline cause problems for electric vehicle sales? Last year, sales of sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks exploded in the U.S. Light-vehicle sales passed 17 million in 2015; the last time that happened was in 2000. To put this in context, during the poor economy of 2009 the U.S. 10.4 million light-vehicles, even though gasoline cost was not high (U.S. In 2011, when gasoline cost was U.S. 3.58/gal, President Barack Obama called for a million electric cars on the road in America by 2015. So far, Americans have bought only 400,000—and with such low gas prices, are we back to Who Killed the Electric Car?
6/gal gasoline is four times more expensive as their residential electricity used in EVs! EV sales have doubled in Europe, more than tripled in China and contracted by 4 % in the U.S. So what is holding the U.S. 30,000 were not able to go 100 miles on a charge—even less in cold weather. 60,000). With the average price of a new IC engine car (that can go 400 miles on a single fill up) in the U.S. 31,000, range anxiety is a major problem. 125/kWh. As technology advances, and battery and drivetrain costs continue to drop, plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales are expected to keep increasing each year, replacing demand for petroleum with demand for electricity. This additional demand for electricity can be met by widespread deployment of renewables, such as photovoltaic (PV) solar power. The cost of these long-range EVs is substantially dropping as Chevrolet, Tesla, and Nissan release their long range EVs over the next few years.
EVs at a price less than the average IC engine car—including tax incentives. —most important—the cost of batteries up to the year 2040. Figure 6 from this report shows that U.S. EVs once the purchase price drops. 22,500 would be a practical choice for almost 70 percent of car buyers (gray line). 1 million (0.6%) to 41 million by 2040, representing 35% of new light duty vehicle sales. 20 a barrel the adoption would be 25 percent EVs. 145 kWh battery cell costs at Chevy Bolt launch (see James Ayre, ref. That would create a glut of oil equivalent to what triggered the 2014 oil crisis. Will electric utilities succumb to a “Utility Death Spiral”? Fig. 6. Total addressable market for vehicles with a 200-mile range (see Tom Randall, ref. Fig. 7. Global light duty vehicle and EV annual sales, 2015 - 2040 (see Michael Liebreich, ref. Fig. 8. Predicting the Big Crash, when increased EV sales displace 2 million barrels of oil per day—the size of the current glut (see Tom Randall, ref.
